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How is Dublin preparing for a possible no-deal Brexit?



  Dublin Port

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Standing atop the roof of the Dublin Port Company headquarters, you can see many construction jobs amid all the ships docked at the mouth of the River Liffey. [1

9659005] And although this construction is not entirely linked to Brexit, the port's management says it must be prepared for the possibility of a no-deal and any potential economic fallout.

March 29 is scheduled to leave the UK, regardless of whether or not there is a negotiated agreement.

British Prime Minister Theresa May hopes that her draft withdrawal agreement will go through the House of Commons, but preparations are under way otherwise.

There is an agreement between the Irish company that Brexit will have a negative effect on the country, but the worst case scenario for the Irish government is that the UK leaves without a negotiated solution.

Politicians here refer to that option as a "hard" Brexit.

The International Monetary Fund expects Ireland's economic growth to suffer a 4% "long-term" blow if there is a "peaked" rupture with the EU, due to highly integrated nature of the Irish and British economies.

And the Dublin independent think tank The Economic and Social Research Institute estimates that a "difficult" Brexit could cost families up to € 1,400 (£ 1,260) a year, due to a potential price increase food products and possible commercial rates.

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Government of Ireland

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The Irish government has defined its approach to tackling a Brexit without agreement in December

Although no one in authority is able to predict how the Brexit will take place, the Irish government has already announced plans for an extra 1,000 customs officers and veterinarians to work in Dublin and Rosslare ports and airports, as well as new money for train people in areas that could be seriously affected.

He organized a series of roadshows very well followed throughout the country with the involvement of state agencies with the theme "Get Ireland Brexit Ready" for each Brexit scenario.

And there is evidence that more companies – worried about possible delays and costs arising in Dover – will abandon the British land bridge for the new "Brexit-busting" super-ferries that will fly directly between Dublin and Zeebrugge and Rotterdam, bypassing uncertainty in Britain.

It is too early to say what impact they have, but development is considered significant.

There is an Irish political and economic consensus on Brexit.

For political reasons there is a broad consensus that there should be a so-called "backstop" unless and until there is a broader trade agreement to avoid a hard border in the island. ;Ireland.

It is feared that such a border could risk a return to violence after a difficult conquest of peace.

Parties in the Conservative Party and the DUP as a whole strongly oppose support, believing that it risks weakening the union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

They also believe that it can effectively trap the UK in a customs agreement with the EU, preventing it from making its trade agreements with non-EU states.

There is also a consensus in Dublin that, for economic reasons, the Republic of Ireland desires a relationship as close as possible to the United Kingdom for reasons of employment and mutual prosperity after the Great Britain has left the EU.

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Yet despite this consensus, opposition parties in the Dáil (parliament), Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein, have often criticized Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's government for not to have done enough to prepare for the non-business scenario.

There was also an often unexplained fear that the EU could at last try to force Ireland to surrender to the arrest door to allow Mrs. May to pass his agreement to Westminster.

This concern is largely based on what happened during the financial crisis, when Dublin came under enormous pressure to demand a bailout to protect its banks.

But Irish government ministers insist that the remaining EU27 countries are one on the question.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Brexit's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, were frequent visitors to Dublin, expressing their solidarity with their Irish counterparts.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas reiterated this support at this week's Ireland-based world conference in Dublin, which appears alongside Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney.

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Inpho

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Simon Coveney (l) and Heiko Maas (r) both emphasize the importance of avoiding a difficult border

While a Brexit without agreements is seen by many as a threat to the Irish state, it also offers opportunities.

The Industrial Development Authority, which is responsible for the search for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country, notes that more than 55 companies have transferred at least part of their operations from London to Irish capital because of the Brexit.

Those companies include Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, helping to make 2018 a record year for job creation in IDE

C & # 39; it is however the fear that national companies – who they tend to have a closer economic relationship with the United Kingdom than the multinationals – they can suffer job losses, especially if the pound has decreased due to a failure to agree on an agreement.

This would make Irish exports less competitive and UK imports cheaper, increasing the prospect of some companies lobbying for possible state support.

Amid the confusion and uncertainty over Brexit, the Irish government has consistently stated that it thinks it is more likely that a Brexit without agreements is avoided, but emphasizes that it must necessarily plan all eventualities.

The Dublin port management is taking over the politicians and is preparing for a Brexit scenario without agreements, preparing to host other customs officials and veterinary inspection personnel.

It seems certain that cranes, trucks and construction personnel at the mouth of the Liffey will be occupied for some time to come.


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